So the much-followed Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has fallen below 50 for the first time since 2009 and that is meant to suggest we’re going into recession. But the Bank of England’s Survey suggests ‘Business as usual’ with no clear evidence of a slowdown.
In this case I believe the PMI is likely to be more accurate – after all, how many purchasing guys get fired for holding off spending, particularly if they can claim that waiting will get a better deal? But equally, they have to do as they’re told!
Remember this column is about reasons to be MORE cheerful and I have always assumed we will have a shallow two year recession, then we’ll bounce out. That’s why I was a ‘reluctant remainer’. I’m working to a 0.5%-1.25% decline in GDP but the point is that, given that level of pain, it won’t be evenly spread and I bet more than 50% of the economy will carry on growing.
Chris Ingram 26/07/2016